Sunday 16 August 2020

Populism, Conspiracy Theories... and Data Mining.

Have you ever wondered how millions of reasonably intelligent people have become convinced that the Earth is flat? What would it take for me to convince you that it was so? You'd say it was impossible... but that clearly, is not true.

To a lesser extent we've recently seen fifty four percent of the UK electorate vote to leave the EU without a valid explanation of how we do so and survive economically. We've seen life long Labour supporters switch their votes to the Conservatives, and Boris Johnson's government (despite its disastrous handling of the Coronavirus outbreak among other highly questionable mistakes) still maintaining a lead in the polls.

Conspiracy theories are not a new thing, they've been around for a very long time and to some extent can be explained as a way for the human mind to explain away events that they basically cannot psychologically deal with. We cannot reasonably say however, that all exponents of conspiracy theory are simply stupid, any more than we can say, as are all those who voted to leave the EU.

As our political landscapes are dramatically changing and with the rise of Populism, conspiracy theories are also changing along with them. Russell Muirhead, a political scientist at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, is concerned about the direction they are taking.

“Classically, conspiracy theories are propagated by people on the margins – they’re almost a weapon of the powerless, for holding the powerful to account,” he says. “But right now the new stuff is coming directly from the powerful, which is really quite extraordinary.”

Muirhead states further “There’s this effort by politicians to erase facts and evidence and remake the world into something more conducive to their goals.”

Whereas in the past conspiracies generally needed some kernel of truth in order to feed off, it's now become apparent that the new breed of conspiracy theory can be entirely fictional as in the case of the totally discredited and condemned 'Pizzagate' conspiracy whereby Hillary Clinton's campaign manager was linked to a supposed child sex abuse ring operating from the basement of a pizza outlet. This conspiracy gained such widespread support back in 2016 that it resulted in an armed American firing an assault rifle on the premises.

“Not only were there no children being held captive at the pizza restaurant, there wasn’t even a basement,” says Muirhead. “What surprised us was the way this narrative was a complete fabrication, from beginning to end".

The 'pizzagate' conspiracy serves no purpose other than to demonise the Clinton Campaign to such an extent that those receptive to the conspiracy consider by association that they are evil, (as opposed to simply being less desirable political opponents) and guarantees beyond a shadow of a doubt that those people will not support them under any circumstance.

We can see from the pizzagate conspiracy that it's clearly to the political advantage of certain individuals to be able to target those groups likely to believe in a completely fabricated conspiracy, designed in order to discredit their political opponents. So how would you do that?

The answer is Data Mining, a process of discovering patterns in large data sets with an overall goal to extract information (with intelligent methods) and transform the information into a comprehensible structure for further use.

Data mining is highly controversial because it uncovers information or patterns of information which compromise confidentiality and privacy laws. "The threat to an individual's privacy comes into play when the data, once compiled, cause the data miner, or anyone who has access to the newly compiled data set, to be able to identify specific individuals, especially when the data were originally anonymous".

Despite this threat there is strong evidence to suggest that the practice is now being used for political advantage and therefore, easy to conclude why 'Data' is fast becoming the most valuable commodity on Earth.

It's pretty much impossible for example, to rig an election with a high turnout in Western democracies, mainly due to the numbers involved and the measures put in place to prevent it; so the next best option would be to try and convince voters into thinking either that the election was not valid, or that voting for the opposition would in some way be personally detrimental to them.

The information that we voluntarily post all over social media makes it really easy to ultimately profile users as to their general level of intelligence, how politically informed they are, how susceptible they are (to conspiracy theories for example), how religious they are (more relevant in America) and their general political leaning.

After profiling they would then be targeted with the necessary (usually false) information or propaganda in order to influence or manipulate them into voting the way that those manipulating, want them to vote.

If you think that manipulation through Data Mining is in itself some kind of conspiracy and that you could not possibly be susceptible to it, or persuaded to rethink your position on how you vote for example; maybe we should consider those TV shows in which the hypnotist takes control of an unsuspecting individual's mind in just a few minutes. How easy is it to hypnotise someone and what does that actually involve?

Here's how it works (from hypnosistrainingacademy.com)

"Hypnosis is a human condition involving focused attention, reduced peripheral awareness, and an enhanced capacity to respond to suggestion."

"And this cool fact for you: hypnosis is a natural state that you can enter several times a day. It can happen when you’re absorbed in a good book. Or when you’re totally engrossed in your favourite hobby. You can get so lost in thought when you’re driving a car that you find yourself unable to remember certain parts of the journey. Why? Because your mind wanders. Or, to be more precise, your focus changes. Instead of focusing on the world around you – the outside world – you’re focused on your thoughts and feelings – the inside world. And that’s all that hypnosis is. It’s a highly focused state of concentration in which your focus switches from the outside world to the inside world, or from the conscious world to the unconscious world. But before you can help someone focus on the inside or unconscious world, you have to do something else that’s vitally important. You have to get their attention."

I'm not for one minute suggesting that everyone who believes in conspiracy theories or who voted for Brexit has been hypnotised, but the basic principle is I believe, the same. The mind is very powerful and according to hypnotists, it is also very easy to manipulate. And data mining is a very powerful tool that can be used in order to facilitate this.

Don't believe anything you see on your Social Media feed if it begins to convince you of something that you previously were not convinced of. Fact check it! If something appears dubious, unbelievable or extreme... fact check it.

Do you really want your mind to be manipulated to the point where you are prepared to abandon all reason? Because the evidence suggests that it is not as impossible as you might think. And keep in mind, for that to happen... all the people targeting you initially need, is to get your attention.